Housing Finance Watch and Inflation Watch (Week 39, 2022) | American Enterprise Institute

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Key takeaways:

Key takeaways:

• The 10-year old seller’s market is showing its age, with moderate purchase volume declines due to sharply higher rates & a cumulative 37% increase in constant quality HPA since Jan. 2020.
• Tight supply, the work from home revolution, & arbitrage opportunities due to metro & regional price differences are helping to extend the seller’s market, but this is likely to change with HPA peaking in July.
• Purchase volume for week 39 is down 32%, 28% & 26% from 2021, 2019 & 2018, respectively, with HPA projected to moderate to 10.5%, 9.1% and 7.3% in Sept., Oct. and 1^st half of Nov. 2022, respectively.
• If the current mortgage rate of around 6% holds, we expect December 2022 HPA to slow to 4-6% (y-o-y) as demand will further moderate and supply will increase.
• HPA declines seem most likely at the high end of expensive markets, at the low end of some FHA markets, and in metros with stagnating or declining job growth.  We expect the national seller’s market to end in 2023.
• HPA declines seem most likely at the high end of expensive markets, at the low end of some FHA markets, and in metros with stagnating or declining job growth.
• We expect the national seller’s market to end in 2023.